This is the season of bad beats!! For the second week in row, and for the third time this season, the 2nd highest scoring team lost to the highest scoring team. Absolutely brutal! In total this season there have now been 14 scores over 100, with 4 of those in a losing effort, making the win percentage for scoring >100 points just 71.4%. Since 2007, the lowest win percentage was in 2018 when scoring over 100 won 77.1% of the time, but across all seasons scoring over 100 has a winning percentage of 86.6%. So we are seeing some historically tough winning conditions this season.
The big congratulations this week go out to the Wyld Ass Monkeys who overcame a zero-point-scoring runningback, and a very tough opponent, to eek out a 1 point victory over sprouts, 119-118. Rob pulled it off mostly thanks to his wide receivers who posted 40 points (Ja’Marr Chase) and 27 points (Tyreek Hill). Kirk Cousins also chipped in 19 points, and his tight end, Logan Thomas added 11. This is the 3rd highest point total this season, and is the fourth different team to claim a Weekly High Score Prize. Nice work Rob!
Across the rest of the league, parity is the name of the game, as only one team remains with only 1 loss (Sofa King Great at 4-1) and only one team sits with one win (sprouts at 1-4), with everyone else at 3-2 or 2-3. The North division still holds a narrow lead in overall wins, 13-12, but the South division is pulling ahead in points scored, 2,233 - 2,164. Points and records are getting to be important, and especially so this week as I have my annual Week 5 Playoff Predictions! Also this week we will hand out a very rare Best Bench… Onward!
BIG TIME
- DJ Moore, WR – Coors Light Drunk Guys – 44 pts – DJ had a huge game, hauling in 8 catches on 10 targets for 230 yards and 3 TD’s! This game vaulted him to 2nd in the scoring list for wide receivers, ahead of Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson.
- Ja’Marr Chase, WR – Wyld Ass Monkeys – 40 pts – The game everyone has been waiting to see from Chase! On Sunday he caught an incredible 15 catches (19 targets) for 192 yards and 3 TD’s. Sounds like the Bengals finally figured out how to get the ball to Ja'Marr!
- Zack Moss, RB – sprouts – 34 pts – With this solid week plus a 20-pointer in Week 3, Mr. Moss has quietly moved into 4th overall for scoring amongst runningbacks.
- Justin Fields, QB – sprouts – 32 pts – Production is undeniable, as Fields backed up last week’s 4 TD performance with another 4 TD’s this week. This score moves him to the 8th overall ranked QB, but over the last two weeks he has scored the 2nd most of any player.
- Josh Allen, QB – 76 – 30 pts – Allen is now the top scoring player in Fantasy, having scored 65 points in the last two weeks, and 115 points overall. He had a monster game on Sunday, racking up 359 yards and 2 TD’s passing, plus 14 rushing yards and a rushing TD. Keep it going Josh!
COME ON MAN
- DaVonta Smith, WR – American BadAss – 0 pts – DaVonta’s hot start to the season (29 pts in Weeks 1 & 2) has really fizzled (9 pts in the last three weeks). This week he was held to just 1 catch for 5 yards.
- Chad Ryland, K – Joe’s Pats – 0 pts – The Patriots’ offense has scored all of 3 points in the last two weeks. You have to be a die hard Patriots fan to keep this guy on your fantasy roster.
- Patrick Taylor, RB – Wyld Ass Monkeys – 0 pts – This seemed to be a smart pickup after Aaron Jones was declared inactive for the Packers, but he ultimately finished with just 2 carries for 2 yards, and 2 catches for 5 yards.
- Washington, DEF – Joe’s Pats – -1 pts – The Commanders got worked over by da Bears, giving up 40 points, and only managing 3 sacks.
ANNUAL WEEK 5 PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Five weeks into the season so it is time to make the way-too-early
playoff predictions. The last two
seasons I’ve been correct on 4 of 6 picks, but prior to that I had gone 6-0,
and 5-1 twice. So combining together the
last five seasons, I’ve been correct on 80% of my picks.
Several factors go into these predictions: overall record, total points scored,
utilization rate and remaining schedule difficulty. Without further ado, here are my 2023 playoff
predictions:
- Sofa King Good – James; The King leads in two very important categories, overall record and total points scored. Teams with a 4-1 record thru 5 games have qualified for the playoffs 79% of the time, and the top scoring team thru 5 games has qualified 100% of the time. Enough said.
- Joe’s Pats – Joe; Joe has a 3-2 record (70% playoff qualification), plus the 5th highest scoring team has qualified 77.8% of the time. Also Joe currently ranks #1 in utilization (fewest bench improvement points), and has the 4th easiest schedule remaining.
- Wyld Ass Monkeys – Rob; WAM is currently the 2nd highest scoring team, which has qualified 87.5% of the time. Rob also ranks second in utilization, so stands a good chance to keep scoring well each week.
- Attack of Mahomes – Timmy; AOM has a 2-3 record which has qualified 61% of the time, and currently ranks as the 7th highest scoring team, which oddly, has also qualified for the playoffs 61% of the time. Timmy ranks 4th in utilization so has been doing a good job managing all his Chiefs players.
- 76 – Jerry; A 3-2 record qualifies 70% of the time and I have the 2nd easiest schedule remaining.
- sprouts – Russ; The team with the worst record making it to the playoffs? While it is true that teams with a 1-4 record have only qualified 25% of the time, sprouts currently ranks as the 3rd highest scoring team and teams ranked 3rd at this point of the season qualify 71% of the time. So the losses seem to mostly be due to unlucky matchups, rather than poor performance. Plus, Russ has the easiest remaining schedule and ranks 5th in utilization rate.
This means the teams I have picked to miss the playoffs
this year are: the Coors Light Drunk
Guys, American BadAss, Big Sack No TD’s and defending champion Young Guns. If I picked your team to make it in, yours is
definitely one of the ones I’m getting right this season, so you’re welcome. If I didn’t pick your team, yours is
definitely the one I got wrong this season, so my bad. Of course, I’ll check back in with these
picks come playoff time to see how I did.
FANTASY SCORES BY NFL TEAM
Amazingly, the NFL team with the most fantasy points
scored in Week 5 was the Chicago Bears with 126. This from a team who tallied just 31 points
in Week 3. Scoring 126 is no small feat,
as that is the 3rd highest single week total this season. It just makes Miami’s Week 3 total of 189
points that much more impressive..
Speaking of Miami, they currently rank as the top scoring
fantasy team with 573 points, leading 2nd place San Francisco (493
points), and 3rd place Buffalo (491 points). At the bottom is the New York Giants, who
have only amassed 231 points, which is even less than all four of the teams who
were on bye in Week 5. (Cleveland ranks
30th in scoring with 261 points, but that’s only for four games. The
Giants have 30 fewer points in five
games). The second lowest scoring team
is the New England Patriots who, and this is frankly hard to understand how it
even happens, across their entire team scored 13 points in Week 5. THIR-TEEN POINTS!! Their
highest scoring player was Kendrick Bourne who had 4 points, followed by
Ezekiel freaking Elliott who scored 3 points. Ezekiel Elliott!!! WTF?!?
BEST BENCH
Five weeks in and we have our fifth different Best Bench
winner! This week’s Best Bench is also
the lowest so far this season, as there were five teams with mere single-digit
bench-improvement possibilities. Lots of
good roster management in action! But, taking
home a rare Best Bench, with a 28-point-improvement-possibility, the Week 5
Best Bench goes to… Sofa King Great!
James needed just two roster swaps to get there…B. Hall for J. Mixon +18
and D. Hopkins for D. Adams +10. This is
James’ first Best Bench since Week 3 2021 (over two years ago), and only his
fourth since 2015. As I said, this is a
rarity to find the King sitting on the Best Bench...James basically gets Best Bench every time there is a solar eclipse. (Just as a reminder, I had 5 Best Benches in last
season alone…hahaha!)
Get those waivers in and get ready for Week 6! We are only three weeks away from midterm
grades!
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