The 2013 season started out hot with 991 total points being scored in Week 1. Since then, total production has declined by 23% with only 762 total points being tallied in Week 3. Perhaps this is due to NFL teams having weeks and weeks in the offseason to prepare for their Week 1 opponent, and then only a scant 6 days to prepare for subsequent opponents. In any event, it is becoming ever more important to have your best line-up in each week, as we now have bye-weeks coming in to play.
The props this week go once again to Timmy’s Channel 4 News Team who took the High Score Prize for the second week in a row!! Now that is some big time football! Tim-Tim was not only the only team to crack the 100-point mark this week, but also is the only team that is undefeated. One recommendation – Put in the Chiefs Defense! Those dudes are the top defense in fantasy and are averaging 20 points per game. Not bad for a defense that is still only owned in 37% of Yahoo! leagues.
Speaking of Channel 4’s undefeated record, how about how close all the other teams are?! There are 3 teams with records of 2-1, and 6 teams with records of 1-2. Point production is also fairly evenly across the board with all teams having scored more than 220 points, and only one team with more than 300 points.
Below I will make my first pass at playoff predictions for this year, look at AP’s 2,500 yard prediction, and crown the biggest Best Bench Award of the season! But first, some observations…
YOU KNOW YOU WANT IT
-Antonio Brown, WR – sprouts – 34 pts – Brown was pretty much the only spark for the Steelers as he went off for 196 yards and 2 TD’s. That one-handed grab he had for his second touchdown was pretty sweet.
-Drew Brees, QB – Coors Light Drunk Guys – 31 pts – Brees is always going to put up nice passing stats (342 yards, 3 TD’s), but the nice bonus was an additional 21 yards rushing plus a rushing TD!-DeMarco Murray, RB – American BadAss – 28 pts – Murray gained 175 yards on 26 carries (for an awesome 6.7 yard per carry average), and added a touchdown. And get this, he didn’t even play the entire 4th quarter of the game! DeMarco is a must-play against the Rams as he has rushed for a combined 428 yards in his last two games against them.
-Cam Newton, QB – Channel 4 News Team – 28 pts – Newton doubled his point total production for the year with his drubbing of the Giants. All told, 223 yards passing, 3 TD’s, 45 yards rushing and 1 TD. All en route to a 38-0 victory. Nice.
-Chicago, DEF – Midnight Maulers – 26 pts – The Chicago Defense did give up 23 points to Pittsburgh, but offset that with 5 total turnovers (2 int’s, 3 fumble recoveries) and 2 defensive touchdowns!
-Jake Locker, QB – Free Agent – 27 pts – Locker played a great game, throwing for 299 yards and 1 TD, and rushing for 68 yards and a touchdown.
-Peyton Manning, QB – sprouts – 27 pts – Peyton had another dominating performance and now leads all fantasy scorers with 96 points. (Next closest is Michael Vick with 76). He has upcoming home games against Philadelphia, Jacksonville, and Washington, so don’t expect him to slow down any time soon.
COME ON, MAN!
-Colin Kaepernick, QB – BoomGoesTheDynamite – 4 pts – After an amazing start to the year with a 33-point performance in Week 1, Kaepernick has gone for 5 pts in Week 2, and now 4 pts in Week 3. Not sure what is going on in San Fran, but it’s not good.
-Phil Dawson, K – SOFA KING GOOD – 1 pt – At home against Indy, all that the Forty-Niners could muster scoring-wise for Dawson was one extra point. Man that is bad.
-C.J. Spiller, RB – sprouts – 0 pts – Spiller got hurt in the 2nd half of the game against the Jets, but had been ineffective up to that point anyway. And the report on his injury was that he was only held out for precautionary reasons. (“Precautionary reasons” usually translates to: “He was sucking, so this gave us an excuse to pull him out”).
-Kellen Winslow, TE – Joe’s Pats – 0 pts – Kellen Winslow was not targeted in the Jet’s Week 3 win over Buffalo. Pretty much all you need to know about the day he had.
-Hakeem Nicks, WR – SOFA KING GOOD – 0 pts – Great line by Nicks after the game, when asked why he didn’t have any catches in Week 3, he said: “I can’t throw the ball to myself”. LOL! Now that’s just funny!
-Dwayne Bowe, WR – Channel 4 News Team – 0 pts – One catch for 4 yards. Yuck. But the Chiefs are winning, so I guess something is working…
FUMBLE RECOVERY TD…SWEET FOR THE DEFENSE! EH, NOT SO FAST…
In their game against the Packers, the Bengals defense scored a touchdown on a fumble recovery. However, the original player that recovered the fumble (Reggie Nelson), re-fumbled the ball while being tackled, at which point it was picked up by Terence Newman and run in for the touchdown. Here is an explanation from Yahoo! about how that play was scored fantasy-wise:
Bengals DEF/ST
Once possession changes following an interception or fumble, the defensive team is considered to be on offense for the purposes of NFL statistical record-keeping. As a result, when Terence Newman recovered teammate Reggie Nelson's fumble following Nelson's recovery of a Packers fumble, the Bengals no longer were on defense by NFL rule, but on offense. When Newman returned his teammate's fumble for a touchdown, it was not recorded as a defensive touchdown, but as an offensive fumble return TD.
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| Gotta love football! |
GIVE IT TO ME STRAIGHT, WHAT ARE MY CHANCES? LIKE 1 IN 100? I’D SAY MORE LIKE 1 IN A MILLION…
Last season Adrian Peterson came within 8 yards of tying the single season rushing record that has stood since 1984. Eric Dickerson still holds the record with 2,105 yards, while AP is now second with 2,097. This offseason, Peterson made a bold prediction that he was going to rush for 2,500 yards this year. That prediction seems awfully lofty and now looks unattainable given the fact that he has only cracked 100 yards one time so far in the first three games… right? Well, not when you look at how he started last season...
In the first three weeks of 2012, Peterson rush for 84 yards, 60 yards and 86 yards, for a total 230 yards. This season he has started out with 93 yards, 100 yards, and 88 yards, for a total of 281 yards. So he is actually 51 yards ahead of the pace that he set last year. That works out to 22% ahead of last year’s pace. If he continues to beat last year’s production by 22%, he will finish with 2,562 yards, break the single season record by Week 15, and achieve his goal of 2,500 yards. Plus, that pace gives him a 62 yard buffer to attain his goal. From this point on, he needs to average 171 yards per game in order to reach 2,500. Can he do that? Well check this out...
Last year he had 7 games where he rushed for over 150 yards (6 of those in the second half of the season), in 5 of those he rushed for more than 170 yards (all 5 in the second half of the season), and in 2 of those he rushed for more than 200 yards (210 in Wk 13, 212 in Wk 15). In Week 17 he rushed for 199 yards, so he nearly had 3 games over 200 yards. Suffice it to say, if he can turn it on like he did last year, and maybe a week or two earlier, then he could have a shot at his goal. However, you do have to factor in how crappy the Vikings are this year, and that they will be in catch up mode for most of their games… so odds are not in AP’s favor. But you’re telling me there’s a chance…
ESOTERIC JOKE OF THE WEEK
A photon checks into a hotel and the porter asks him if he has any luggage. The photon replies: “No, I’m traveling light”.
EARLY SEASON PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Rather than actually predict which teams I believe will make the playoffs (which I will do next week), I figured I would just give the historic percentages of teams making it in with the starting records that we currently see. There are only 3 different records right now, so here is how teams have done in our league starting off with those records dating back to the 2007 season:3-0 = 80% qualified for playoffs (10 teams have started 3-0, 8 qualified)
2-1 = 46.2% qualified for playoffs (13 teams have started 2-1, 6 qualified)
1-2 = 62.5% qualified for playoffs (24 teams have started 1-2, 15 qualified)
Unfortunately, no team is 1-1-1 at this point, because that would mean that they would be a lock to make it to the playoffs. Three teams have started the season with that record, and all three have made it in.
PICK 'EM
This week there were 3 managers that made picks on the weekly match-ups. This time yours truly picked 3 correct, which was more than the other managers, so Butkus' Dick was moved to the top of the waiver list.
Everyone is eligible to do this... you just have to pick the most winners of the weekly match-ups. To make your selections, look at the match-ups each week, and check the team that you think will win each one. If there is a tie between two teams picking the most winners, the waiver order will default to the reverse order of standings.
BEST BENCH
If this had been one of the first two weeks of the season, either of these two teams would have taken the Best Bench Award: The Midnight Maulers had a 42-point improvement possibility, and BoomGoesTheDynamite had an impressive 47-point improvement possibility. But neither of those teams even wins the title this week! That honor goes to… sprouts! With only three roster moves, Russ could have improved his point total by a very solid 56 points!! A. Brown for B. Marshall (+29 pts), Cincinnati DEF for Buffalo (+16 pts), and M. Jones-Drew for C.J. Spiller (+11 pts). Russ is no stranger to big bench improvements as he actually holds the record from Week 2-2009, when he had a nearly unbelievable 89-point improvement possibility.
Get ready for Week 4, and watch out for those byes!!
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