So we are five weeks into the season which means that it is time for my playoff predictions! I have enhanced my prediction methodology this season, and am confident that I will go 6-for-6 with my picks. For those teams that are predicted to be in, congratulations!... for those that didn’t make the cut, well, just look at my track record for picking the winners of games this season. (Hint – It is not good…) Full details on all of this below. But first, some quick hits…
THIS IS HOW WE DO IT
-Demaryius Thomas, WR – American BadAss – 37 pts – Monster game from Thomas where he caught 8 passes for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns. Now that is what you call a keeper!
-Russell Wilson, QB – Joe’s Pats – 34 pts – Gotta love it when your quarterback gets a rushing touchdown. Gotta love it even more when that same quarterback adds 122 yards rushing! Say what?! Yep, Wilson totaled 323 total yards (201 passing, 122 rushing) and had 2 passing TD’s to go along with the one rushing one. That, my friends, is a complete game.
-Peyton Manning, QB – sprouts – 34 pts – Peyton on the other hand did all of his damage from behind the line of scrimmage. Literally…he had -2 yards rushing for the game. But that is okay when you throw for 479 yards (career high for Peyton) and 4!!! touchdowns.
-Arian Foster, RB – Coors Light Drunk Guys – 31 pts – Looks like Arian still has some gas in the tank.
-Austin Davis, QB – Free Agent – 29 pts – Without looking it up, I will give a nickel to anyone who knows where this guy plays quarterback.
-Brandon Oliver, RB – Free Agent – 29 pts – Same with this guy.
-Andre Ellington, RB – Jens – 26 pts – Quite a day for Ellington, getting 144 total yards (32 rushing, 112 receiving) and adding both a rushing and receiving touchdown.
-Stephen Gostkowski, K – sprouts – 21 pts – Have to give props to kickers scoring over 20 points… Gostkowski was a perfect 5-for-5 on figgies, plus added four extra points.
-Phil Dawson, K – Midnight Maulers – 20 pts – What the hell?? Two kickers broke the 20-point barrier? Nutso. Dawson did it by nailing 2 field goals of 50+ yards, along with three others and an extra point.
COME ON, MAN!
-Roddy White, WR – Midnight Maulers – 2 pts – White predicted earlier in the week that he was going to score a touchdown against the Giants. Perhaps he meant next season?
-Steve Smith, Sr., WR – Scottish Rebels – 1 pt – Only 32 yards on the day, and a lost fumble left Steve with one goddamn point.
-Martellus Bennett, TE – Jens – 1 pt – After two big weeks, 17 and 13 points, Bennett was non-existent, catching 3 balls for only 17 yards.
-Arizona, DEF – Jens – 1 pt – Tough matchup playing at Denver, but this one was so bad that I’m actually surprised the Arizona D stayed on the positive side of zero.
-Kelvin Benjamin, WR – American BadAss – 1 pt – A lost fumble cost Benjamin 2 points in what was otherwise a really crappy performance.
PLAYOFFS?! DON’T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!
It is never too early to start thinking about the playoffs. As a quick refresher, the top 6 teams in the league after Week 13 will qualify for the playoffs which run in Weeks 14, 15 and 16. The top team in each division receives a first round bye, the second place team in each division receives an automatic entry and the last two spots are awarded to wildcard teams. I will put out a refresher on the tiebreakers as we get closer to crunch time.
For now it is time for me to make my predictions on which teams will make it in. Under a completely new forecasting methodology, I am examining team records as well as points scored. Basically seeing how the team ranking of points scored through five weeks impacts playoff qualification. One interesting factoid that I came across was that going all the way back to 2007, the highest scoring team through the first 5 weeks has always qualified for the playoffs but has never won the championship. This season, the highest scoring team through five weeks is Vandelay Industries (466 points), so they are my first pick to make it to the playoffs. (But they're gonna have to fight history to win it all).
My second pick to make it to the playoffs this year is my Scottish Rebels. My Rebels are 2nd in total scoring with 457 points, and have a win-loss record of 3-2. Teams that are second in scoring after 5 weeks have also qualified for the playoffs every year, and teams with a 3-2 record make it in 72.7% of the time. My third pick to make it in is Joe’s Pats. Joe is 5th in scoring, but interestingly, teams in 5th place have qualified 75% of the time, plus Joe’s record of 3-2 has a 72.7% qualification rate. My fourth team to make it is American BadAss. BadAss’ 4-1 record has a 75% playoff qualification rate, and being the 4th highest scoring team qualifies 57% of the time.
The fifth team predicted to make it in is Where’s Shawn’s Wallet/ Down Goes Jason/ SofaKingStupid/ PappaNobleJr2/ BeatsByRay/ BradyGaga/ Lovin the Bye Week or WSWDGJSKSPNJBBRBGLBW for short. WSWDGJSKSPNJBBRBGLBW ranks 3rd in total scoring which has a 57% playoff qualification rate. Not great, but it’s a higher percentage than any of the other remaining teams. That leaves five teams with only one spot left.
In looking historically at points scored through five weeks, the team with the lowest point total has only qualified 33% of the time. So with Channel 4 News Team currently holding that distinction, I’m going to say that they don’t make it in. With the four remaining teams, it is literally a coin flip on who could make it in, so that is exactly what I did. By virtue of a coin flip showdown, my final team predicted to make it in is: sprouts.
Signed, sealed, delivered, there are my picks for playoff entrants this season: Vandelay Industries, Scottish Rebels, Joe’s Pats, American BadAss, Jens and sprouts.
ALL UNWANTEDS STRUGGLES CONTINUE
We’ve gone two weeks without an update on the All Unwanteds. Here is how they fared in Week 4:
Derek Anderson Car 2
Justin Forsett Bal 15
Allen Hurns Jax 6
Steve Smith Sr. Bal 25
Dwayne Allen Ind 9
Matt Bryant Atl 4
Minnesota Min 6
TOTAL = 76
With the average league score of 85.4, this went down as another loss for the boys.
In Week 5, here is what happened:
Jake Locker Ten 16
Justin Forsett Bal 15
Chris Ivory NYJ 4
Allen Hurns Jax 2
Steve Smith Sr. Bal 1
Dwayne Allen Ind 11
Matt Bryant Atl 8
Philadelphia Phi 23
TOTAL = 80
They got a lot closer this week, but with an average league score of 83.4, this was yet another loss. The All Unwanteds now have a record of 1-4.
BEST BENCH
We have had great parity on the Weekly High Score Prizes this year with five different teams claiming a prize through the first five weeks. But for the Best Bench, we have our first multiple winner! So now, for the second time this year, the Best Bench Award goes to…sprouts! Russ could have improved his point total this week by 36 points with three roster moves: D. Jackson for B. Cooks +18, S. Jackson for M. Ball +11, and B. Tate for Z. Stacy +7.
Get those waivers in, and get ready for Week 6! Only two weeks away from mid-term grades… yikes!!
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