The last two weeks have been crazy! In both weeks, four of the games were single digit victories and the fifth game was an absolute blow out. In Week 4, the first four games were decided by: 7 points, 5 points, 4 points and 4 points, while the last game was a 72 point domination! This week, the first four games were decided by: 8 points, 5 points 1 point and 1 point, and the last game by a 41 point difference!
Last week’s big congrats go to Russ’ sprouts who were on the winning side of the 72 point victory, besting not only his opponent (Wyld Ass Monkeys) but also everyone else in the league. Russ had big performances from Josh Jacobs (27 points), Bo Nix (25 points), Amon-Ra St. Brown (19 points) and Christian McCaffrey (19 points). (The 72 point victory tied for the 12th largest margin of victory in league history). Russ also became the first team to snag two Weekly High Score prizes this season! Nice work sir!
This week’s big congrats go to Jason’s American BadAss who pulled out a 1-point victory over Wyld Ass Monkeys 98-97. (Rob seems to be bringing out the best of his opponents, having played the top scorer for the last two weeks.) Jason got there courtesy of a big game from Baker Mayfield (29 points) and having five of his other players score in double digits. Nice work bro! This is Jason’s first Weekly High Score Prize this season, and his first since Week 16 last season.
Week 4 saw the last of the undefeated teams go down, as Big Sack No TD’s lost in a nail biter to American BadAss. And unfortunately there is still one winless team, Unlucky Irish, as John has lost two close ones the last two weeks, losing by just 4 points in Week 4 and 8 points in Week 5. There’s still time to turn it around, as we still have nine weeks of the regular season to go!
Now since we are five weeks into the season, it is time for my Way Too Early Playoff Predictions! Plus one team has been absolutely DOMINATING the Best Bench. So let’s get to this!
WAY TOO EARLY PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
Last season 5 of the 6 teams I predicted to qualify for the playoffs made it in, with only Wyld Ass Monkeys not coming through. Luck of the Irish made it in, even though my prediction model had them finishing 9th. Looking back through the years, and only twice have I been perfect in my predictions, most recently in 2020. The worst I’ve done was in 2023 when I only got 3 of 6 picked correctly. I mean, I could probably randomly draw names out of a hat and do better than 3 out of 6. In fact, I’ll do that this year along with my normal picks and see if all my analysis actually does any better than just random draws.
In determining playoff qualifying picks, there are several categories being considered: Overall Record, Points Scored Rank, Remaining Schedule Difficulty, and Utilization Rate.
Among these categories, there are two sure bets: the team who has scored the most points through the first five weeks has qualified for the playoffs every time, and the second highest scoring team has qualified 88.9% of the time. With 494 points scored, sprouts leads all teams in scoring and are thus my first pick to make the playoffs. Not too far behind is Worst to 1st who has scored 475 points thus far, and is my second pick to make the playoffs. (Those two teams are also ranked #1 and #2 in Utilization Rate so far this season, which also bodes well for making it in.)
The next team I’m picking to make it in to the playoffs is American BadAss, as they are currently tied for the best record in the league (which qualifies 80% of the time), plus are the 4th highest scoring team and rank #3 in Utilization.
The fourth team I’m picking is my Scottish Rebels, for two reasons. 1) I currently have the easiest remaining schedule for the regular season, and 2) I’m currently the 3rd highest scoring team. But recent performances from my team, plus injuries have me concerned to say the least.
The fifth team I’m picking to make it is, Mr. What Do You Know?! himself, Jens’ Big Sack No TD’s! Jens is tied for the best record in the league and is tied for 4th in points scored. He does have the 8th hardest remaining schedule, and is 6th in Utilization, so it could still be a tough road.
The final team I’m picking is NASCAR Café Honey Mustard. This was a very close pick between several teams, but Timmy gets the nod due to having the 2nd easiest remaining schedule, and bearing the name of the greatest condiment ever created.
So those are my six picks for this season: sprouts, Worst to 1st, American BadAss, Scottish Rebels, Big Sack No TD’s and NASCAR Café Honey Mustard. If I picked your team, go out there and make me proud! If I didn’t, go out there and prove me wrong!
Now for the random picks out of a hat… in no particular order, they are:
Worst to 1st (James)
NASCAR Café Honey Mustard (Timmy)
Joe’s Pats (Joe)
sprouts (Russ)
American BadAss (Jason)
J LUV U LONG TIME (Shawn)
We’ll see if my deep analysis or random chance does a better job picking.
ESOTERIC JOKE OF THE WEEK
6:30 is the best time on a clock.
Hands down.
ALL UNWANTEDS
After the hot start to the season, the All Unwanteds have really cooled off. In Week 4, they had a decent showing putting up a total of 90 points, but that would have only defeated three teams in the league, so it goes down as a loss.
Here is their line-up for this week:
Again, a decent showing, but zeroes from Trey Benson and Zach Ertz did not help the cause. Also, the AU’s will be going with Slye as their kicker for the remainder of the season after Spencer Shrader got injured. Overall for Week 5 they would have beaten only 4 teams in the league, so this goes down as another loss, making their record 2-3 for the season.
BEST BENCH(es)
Before we get into the Best Bench(es), just wanted to point out that we have had only 1 Optimal Line-up so far this season, which was American BadAss in Week 4. The 97 points ABA posted could not have been improved upon with any roster changes. Last year through the first 5 weeks there had been 2 Optimal Line-ups and we finished the year with it being accomplished 11 times.
On the other end of the spectrum, the team with the most points on the bench is making my job really easy because I've only have to write one name for a while. With an unbelievable third week in a row, the Week 5 Best Bench goes to… J LUV U LONG TIME!
This week Shawn could have improved by 30 points with three roster moves: C. Ridley for J. Jeudy +12, D. Montgomery for J. Cook +12 and J. Fields for J. Hurts +6. Last week Shawn could have improved by +21 points with three roster moves: D. Goedert for TJ Hockenson +12, J. Fields for J. Hurts +8 and J. Jeudy for C. Ridley +1. Since 2019, there has only been one other time where a team has snagged 3 Best Benches in a row, so we are in rarified air. Four in a row would be an all-time record!
Get your rosters set and get ready for Week 6!!
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