Two weeks ago (week 3) four of five games were settled by 6 points or less. Margins of victory were 1, 2, 3, 6 and 20. This week, four of five games were settled by 28 points or more! Margins of victory this week were 10, 28, 34, 47 and 72! All of the lopsided victories featured one team scoring in triple digits, with the other not even breaking 80. Weird how these matchups end up every week.
The big congrats this week go to Sofa King Good who was the crème de la crème, finishing with 129 points and the aforementioned 72 point victory over the Coors Light Drunk Guys (129-57). That margin of victory ties for the 12th largest in league history. James did it with solid performances from Leonard Fournette (25 pts), Davante Adams (24 pts), Tom Brady (23 pts) and Christian McCaffrey (16 pts). This is the first Weekly High Score for Sofa King Good this season (and first since Week 1 last season), and they are the 4th different team to claim a prize. Nice work Jameson!!
We are five weeks in, so it’s time for my Annual Week 5
Playoff Predictions! Back in 2020 my
picks were 6-for-6 on playoff qualifiers, but last season I was only right on 4
out of 6. I'm still following the same methodology this
season, so we’ll see if I can get back to perfection!
First some notes on the methodology employed. There are four categories used to rank
playoff likelihood: Overall record,
points scored, utilization and schedule difficulty.
Overall record – Teams undefeated through 5 weeks qualify
for the playoffs 86% of the time. Teams with only 1 loss, either 4-1 or 3-1-1
qualify 83% of the time. We have no
teams with any of those records, but the 6 teams at 3-2 have a playoff qualification rate of 68%. Three loss teams (2-3 or 1-3-1) qualify 63%
of the time, and teams with records of 1-2-2 should probably just give up now.
Points scored – The top scoring team through five weeks
has qualified for the playoffs every season, and the 2nd highest
scoring team has qualified 93% of the time. On the other end, the lowest scoring team has only qualified 13% of the time.
Utilization – This measures the quality of team management by tracking bench scoring across all teams. The highest utilization this season belongs
to James, who is at a 92.8% utilization having only left 36 points on the bench
this season. The lowest utilization
belongs to yours truly, with utilization at only 69.9%. I’ve left an astounding 170 points on my
bench, blowing away the next closest team, Wyld Ass Monkeys, who have left 101
points on the bench.
Schedule Difficulty – This looks at the rank of teams by
points scored and gives a rank for each team based on their remaining
opponents. Joe’s Pats, the 4th
highest scoring team so far, has the easiest schedule remaining, and my
Scottish Rebels, the 7th highest scoring team, have the most
difficult schedule remaining.
Now, here are my predictions for 2022 Playoff teams:
- Attack of Mahomes – Timmy = As the highest scoring team so far, history shows AOM should make it in. Also they have the easiest schedule remaining.
- Sofa King Good – James = Tied as the second highest scoring team, but also have the highest utilization score and the 3rd easiest schedule remaining.
- Wyld Ass Monkeys – Rob = Tied as the second highest scoring team, and have the 4th easiest schedule from here on out.
- American BadAss – Jason = Third highest utilization score and the 2nd easiest schedule remaining.
- Joe’s Pats – Joe = Fourth highest scoring team (and only 7 points behind the 2nd place teams) and with a winning record.
- Big Sack No TD’s – Jens = It’s been a while since a Jens led team has made it in (2016 to be exact), so I’m going out on a limb on this one. And it really comes down to one stat, which is probably more of an anomaly than anything else, but the team who ranks 5th in scoring after 5 weeks (which BSNTD does) has qualified for the playoffs 82.4% of the time. Not sure what would be driving this, but going to follow the analytics and call for some Big Sack No TD’s to make it in this season.
The teams left out are:
- sprouts – Russ = Currently rank 8th in points scored, 8th in utilization and are tied for the worst record.
- Young Guns – John = The Guns currently rank 9th in points and 9th in utilization.
- Coors Light Drunk Guys – Shawn = The Drunks are the lowest scoring team and are tied for the worst record.
- Scottish Rebels – Jerry = No team has ever started a season 1-2-2. Since 2007 there have been 11 different Week 5 starting record combinations, but this is a first of its kind. Plus I’ve got the hardest schedule remaining and my utilization rating is a complete dumpster fire.
Okay there they are... if you like my predictions, then go prove me right! If you didn’t like my predictions, go and prove me wrong! (I know I want to…)
BEST BENCH
I can’t remember what the threshold is for the number of
times you have to win Best Bench before an honorary re-naming takes place, but god damn I’m
on my way. Big Sack and Joe’s Pats made
decent efforts this week, but none were better than my 39 point improvement
possibility! I needed just three roster
moves this time: J. Jacobs for M.
Sanders +22, D. Cook for A. Jones +16 and W. Dissly for P. Freiermuth +1. This is my 3rd Best Bench this
season and 2nd in a row. A
couple more like this and I'll be forced to rename this segment ‘Jerry’s Bench’. Fml
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