American BadAss is riding high!

Two in a row for American BadAss!  The last two weeks ABA has been the only team to score in triple digits, 107 last week and 137 this week, claiming two Weekly High Score Prizes in the process.  The last back-to-back high score was by Joe’s Pats in Weeks 15 & 16 of 2020.  Jason got there this week with huge performances from Joe Burrow (42 pts) and Tyler Boyd (24 pts), plus got 15 points each from George Kittle and the Chiefs defense, en route to the second highest single week score this season (137)!  This was an extra sweet Weekly High Score as it was also an optimal lineup as there were no bench points to be found.  The victory moves BadAss to a 5-2 record and atop the South division.  Nice job bro!  American BadAss is fifth different team to claim a prize this season, and moves into a tie with Attack of Mahomes for the most won with two.

In other games, Attack of Mahomes has taken the top spot (5-2) in in the North division with a 50-point victory over Wyld Ass Monkeys.  Three teams sit at 4-3:  Joe’s Pats, Sofa King Good and Young Guns.  Sprouts sits at .500 with a 3-3-1 record, and four teams have losing records:  Wyld Ass Monkeys (3-4), Scottish Rebels (2-3-2), Big Sack No TDs (2-5) and Coors Light Drunk Guys (1-5-1).  Still a lot more season to go!

This week we’ll check in on the positional Top Five rankings and award two Best Benches!

BIG TIME

• Joe Burrow, QB, American BadAss – 42 pts – This is the way you play football!  Burrow went wild over the Falcons on Sunday, finishing with 501 total yards and 5 TDs.  He completed 33-of-42 passes (78.5%) for 481 yards (14.5 yards per completion) and 4 TDs, plus added 20 yards and another TD on the ground.  This is the highest single game score we’ve seen from a player so far this season, and moves Burrow to 3rd place in total scoring this season.
• Josh Jacobs, RB, Scottish Rebels – 33 pts – Jacobs set a career record last week with 154 yards, and nearly got there again this week with 143 yards.  He also added 3 TDs in this game to give him 6 in the last 3 games.
• Kenneth Walker III, RB, sprouts – 31 pts – Since taking over after Rashad Penny’s season-ending injury, Walker has rushed for 265 yards and 3 TDs… and that’s only been 2 games!

 

COME ON MAN!

• Jared Goff, QB, Scottish Rebels – 1 pt – Through Week 4, Goff had scored a total of 89 points for an impressive 22.25 points per game average.  Since then, he’s scored 6 points total in 2 games.  Either the first quarter season magic is gone, or teams have figured out how to stop the Lions.
• AJ Dillon, RB, Coors Light Drunk Guys – 1 pt – Four carries for just 15 yards was all Dillon managed this week.  And now the Packers are set to face Buffalo…this could be rough.
• Leonard Fournette, RB, Sofa King Good – 1 pt – Not for lack of trying... Fournette carried the ball 8 times but only managed a meager 19 yards.
• Drake London, WR, Joe’s Pats – 0 pts – The dreaded 1 catch for 9 yard game.
• Kyle Pitts, TE, Joe’s Pats – 0 pts – And an even more dreaded 3 catches for 9 yard game.  Oof.
• James Robinson, RB, Wyld Ass Monkeys – 0 pts – He didn’t hardly see the field, and now news comes out he has been traded to the Jets.  Hopefully they decide to put him in the game.
• Mark Andrews, TE, Wyld Ass Monkeys – 0 pts – Two balls thrown his way and nary a catch. 

 

TOP FIVES

Here is a current check on the top five players in each position.  Since bye weeks have begun, players are ranked on their average points per game.

Notes:

-All teams have at least 1 player represented above.  Teams with 4 players: Joe’s Pats, American BadAss, Wyld Ass Monkeys.  Teams with 3 players: Attack of Mahomes, Big Sack No TDs, Young Guns, sprouts.  Team with 2 players: Scottish Rebels.  Teams with 1 player: Coors Light Drunk Guys, Young Guns.

-Joe’s Pats and Attack of Mahomes are the only teams with both of their keepers listed above.

-Taysom Hill is technically listed as QB/TE, but no one would play that guy as their QB, so he is included with Tight Ends.

-Biggest surprises have to be Josh Jacobs as the top runningback, Jalen Hurts as the 3rd ranked quarterback and the New York Jets coming in as the 4^th ranked defense.

 

BEST BENCH(ES)

The Best Bench in Week 6 was the lowest we’ve had this season as 7-of-10 teams had just single digit improvement possibilities, and two teams, American BadAss and Attack of Mahomes, had optimal line-ups.  But with a 24-point improvement possibility on a three player swap, the Week 6 Best Bench goes to… Young Guns!  John needed to swap New England for Dallas (+12), A. Robinson for M. Evans (+8) and J. Waddle for C. Kirk (+4) to get there.  This was John’s first Best Bench this season.

In Week 7, there were nearly double the total amount of points on the bench from Week 6, with only 4 teams having single digit improvements, and three being over 20.  In the end it was another first timer this season taking home the Best Bench…with a 34-point improvement possibility, and needing four swaps to get there, the Week 7 Best Bench goes to… Big Sack No TD’s!  Jens needed to swap:  T. McLaurin for D. Metcalf (+12), E. Benjamin for T. Pollard (+9), T. Etienne Jr. for B. Robinson Jr. (+9) and D. Carr for L. Jackson (+4).  Big Sack No TD’s becomes the 5^th different team to win Best Bench this season.

 

Get your waivers in and get ready for Week 8!  And make sure all your homework assignments are turned in…Mid-term grades come out next week!!

The King has returned

Two weeks ago (week 3) four of five games were settled by 6 points or less.  Margins of victory were 1, 2, 3, 6 and 20.  This week, four of five games were settled by 28 points or more!  Margins of victory this week were 10, 28, 34, 47 and 72!  All of the lopsided victories featured one team scoring in triple digits, with the other not even breaking 80.  Weird how these matchups end up every week.

 

The big congrats this week go to Sofa King Good who was the crème de la crème, finishing with 129 points and the aforementioned 72 point victory over the Coors Light Drunk Guys (129-57).  That margin of victory ties for the 12^th largest in league history.  James did it with solid performances from Leonard Fournette (25 pts), Davante Adams (24 pts), Tom Brady (23 pts) and Christian McCaffrey (16 pts).  This is the first Weekly High Score for Sofa King Good this season (and first since Week 1 last season), and they are the 4^th different team to claim a prize.  Nice work Jameson!! 

We are five weeks in, so it’s time for my Annual Week 5 Playoff Predictions!  Back in 2020 my picks were 6-for-6 on playoff qualifiers, but last season I was only right on 4 out of 6.  I'm still following the same methodology this season, so we’ll see if I can get back to perfection!

First some notes on the methodology employed.  There are four categories used to rank playoff likelihood:  Overall record, points scored, utilization and schedule difficulty.

Overall record – Teams undefeated through 5 weeks qualify for the playoffs 86% of the time.  Teams with only 1 loss, either 4-1 or 3-1-1 qualify 83% of the time.  We have no teams with any of those records, but the 6 teams at 3-2 have a playoff qualification rate of 68%.  Three loss teams (2-3 or 1-3-1) qualify 63% of the time, and teams with records of 1-2-2 should probably just give up now. 

Points scored – The top scoring team through five weeks has qualified for the playoffs every season, and the 2^nd highest scoring team has qualified 93% of the time.  On the other end, the lowest scoring team has only qualified 13% of the time.

Utilization – This measures the quality of team management by tracking bench scoring across all teams.  The highest utilization this season belongs to James, who is at a 92.8% utilization having only left 36 points on the bench this season.  The lowest utilization belongs to yours truly, with utilization at only 69.9%.  I’ve left an astounding 170 points on my bench, blowing away the next closest team, Wyld Ass Monkeys, who have left 101 points on the bench.

Schedule Difficulty – This looks at the rank of teams by points scored and gives a rank for each team based on their remaining opponents.  Joe’s Pats, the 4^th highest scoring team so far, has the easiest schedule remaining, and my Scottish Rebels, the 7^th highest scoring team, have the most difficult schedule remaining.

Now, here are my predictions for 2022 Playoff teams:

• Attack of Mahomes – Timmy = As the highest scoring team so far, history shows AOM should make it in.  Also they have the easiest schedule remaining.
• Sofa King Good – James = Tied as the second highest scoring team, but also have the highest utilization score and the 3^rd easiest schedule remaining.
• Wyld Ass Monkeys – Rob = Tied as the second highest scoring team, and have the 4^th easiest schedule from here on out.
• American BadAss – Jason = Third highest utilization score and the 2^nd easiest schedule remaining.
• Joe’s Pats – Joe = Fourth highest scoring team (and only 7 points behind the 2^nd place teams) and with a winning record.
• Big Sack No TD’s – Jens = It’s been a while since a Jens led team has made it in (2016 to be exact), so I’m going out on a limb on this one.  And it really comes down to one stat, which is probably more of an anomaly than anything else, but the team who ranks 5^th in scoring  after 5 weeks (which BSNTD does) has qualified for the playoffs 82.4% of the time.  Not sure what would be driving this, but going to follow the analytics and call for some Big Sack No TD’s to make it in this season.

The teams left out are:

• sprouts – Russ = Currently rank 8^th in points scored, 8^th in utilization and are tied for the worst record.
• Young Guns – John = The Guns currently rank 9^th in points and 9^th in utilization. 
• Coors Light Drunk Guys – Shawn = The Drunks are the lowest scoring team and are tied for the worst record.
• Scottish Rebels – Jerry = No team has ever started a season 1-2-2.  Since 2007 there have been 11 different Week 5 starting record combinations, but this is a first of its kind.  Plus I’ve got the hardest schedule remaining and my utilization rating is a complete dumpster fire.

Okay there they are... if you like my predictions, then go prove me right!  If you didn’t like my predictions, go and prove me wrong!  (I know I want to…) 

BEST BENCH

I can’t remember what the threshold is for the number of times you have to win Best Bench before an honorary re-naming takes place, but god damn I’m on my way.  Big Sack and Joe’s Pats made decent efforts this week, but none were better than my 39 point improvement possibility!  I needed just three roster moves this time:  J. Jacobs for M. Sanders +22, D. Cook for A. Jones +16 and W. Dissly for P. Freiermuth +1.  This is my 3^rd Best Bench this season and 2^nd in a row.  A couple more like this and I'll be forced to rename this segment ‘Jerry’s Bench’.  Fml

 

Alright, get your rosters ready for Week 6!  Put in the right players this time!! (I’m talking to myself there…)

Mahomes is back on the attack!

 

First and foremost this week I’m sending a big congratulations to Mr. F ‘N A himself, Shawn Martin, who got married over the weekend!  Not sure how he convinced such a cool chick to marry him, but he’s always been a smooth talker… Hahaha!  Love ya Shawn!

Another congrats goes out to Timmy, who showed us once again the power of Mahomes, being the only team to crack the triple digits on his way to secure his 2^nd Weekly Score Prize!  Nearly 60% of Attack of Mahomes 110 points came from Chiefs players… Mahomes 22, Edwards-Helaire 21, Kelce 15 and KC Def 6.  Tim also got strong performances from his non-Chief wide receivers (Deebo Samuel 17 and Chris Olave 12), improving his record to 2-2, and the 110 points scored moves him into 2^nd place for overall scoring.  Nice work, Tim-may!!

In other games around the league, parity is in full effect as 6 teams now sit with a record of 2-2, and my Rebels have the stupidest looking record ever at 1-1-2, after securing my 2^nd tie game of the season against sprouts this week.  (No team has ever had 3 ties in a season, and we’ve only had 4 teams with 2 ties.)  Young Guns now holds the best record in the league at 3-1, and the Wyld Ass Monkeys are the highest scoring team with 386 points scored.

The final congratulations this week go to Joe’s Pats who snagged the Week 3 high score with a 91-point performance.  Week 3 was an oddly low scoring week, where the other winning teams scored 81, 79 (x2) and 77 points.  The last time the Weekly High Score Prize was won by a score lower than 91 was way back in Week 11 of 2015, when the Coors Light Drunk Guys took the prize with a mere 85 points.  This was Joe’s first High Score of the season, and was the 3^rd team to claim a prize.  Way to go Joe!

This week we have two Best Benches to hand out, and we’ll take a look at some mind blowing stats on fantasy scoring by NFL teams this season.  Onward!

 

BIG TIME FOOTBALL

-Jared Goff, QB – Free Agent – 36 pts – Goff was huge on Sunday, throwing for 348 yards and 4 TD’s.  He also had a pick-six, so technically he threw 5 TD’s.

-TJ Hockenson, TE – Wyld Ass Monkeys – 34 pts – Best single game tight end performance of the season!  TJ caught 8 passes for a crazy 179 yards (22.4 avg) and added 2 TD’s.

-Rashad Penny, RB – sprouts – 30 pts – Through the first 3 weeks of the season, Penny had all of 13 total points scored.  Then he got to play the Lions this week, and shredded them for 151 yards and 2 TD’s.  If only he could play Detroit every week.

-Geno Smith, QB – Free Agent – 30 pts – In the “Never in 100 Years Did Anyone See This Coming” category, we have Mr. Smith racking up 320 passing yards, 49 rushing yards, plus 2 TD passes and 1 rushing TD.  That sounds more like a Lamar Jackson stat line.

 

COME ON MAN

-Devonta Smith, WR – American BadAss – 1 pt – After scoring a hefty 25 points last week, Smith didn’t do much this week, catching 3 balls for just 17 yards.

-Mark Andrews, TE – Wyld Ass Monkeys – 1 pt – Bills made it a top priority to stop Andrews, and they did… he was held to just 2 catches for 15 yards.

-Gabe Davis, WR – Joe’s Pats – 1 pt – In Week 1, Davis scored 14 points and looked like he may be a force this season.  Since then he has scored 4 points, including this 1 catch 13 yard stinker.  Yuck.

-Alvin Kamara, RB – American BadAss – 0 pts – Kamara was declared inactive prior to the game, yet was still active for BadAss.  Check your rosters!!

-Tony Pollard, RB – Big Sack No TD’s – 0 pts – Here’s a horrific stat line for you:  8 rushes for 6 yards, and 1 catch for 2 yards.  What.  Do.  You.  Know??!

 

NFL TEAM FANTASY SCORING

Through the first four weeks of the season, I calculated the fantasy points scored by each team and by position to see if there were any interesting tidbits.  Here are some insights:

-          21 teams have only had 1 QB post points this season… 10 teams have had 2 QB’s, and 1 team, the New England Patriots, have had QB points posted by 3 players.  (Still trying to replace Tom.)

-          The New Orleans Saints have had the most different players post fantasy points with 18 players scoring.

-          The Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams have had the fewest different players post fantasy points with only 11 players scoring.

-          The highest scoring team is the Detroit Lions with 406 points scored across 17 different players.  (Yes, you read that correctly).  The Lions rank 1^st in runningback points, 4^th in tight end points and 5^th in both QB and WR points.

-          The lowest scoring team is the Chicago Bears, who have only scored 223 points this season.

-          The Jacksonville Jaguars rank 7^th in total scoring with 340 points scored so far.  The Jags are tied with Philly for 1^st in Defensive scoring, and their wide receivers rank 7^th.

-          Every team has at least one position where they rank in the top 10, except for the defending Super Bowl champs, Los Angeles Rams.  They currently rank 28^th in total scoring (259 points), and their best rankings are their wide receivers ranking 12^th, and tight ends ranking 13^th.  They are 31^st in quarterback scoring, and dead last in runningback scoring.

-          Meanwhile Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 in all categories except Kicker.  They are 1^st (tied) in defense, 3^rd in QB, 6^th in RB, 8^th in TE and 10^th in WR.  This has them ranked 2^nd overall in scoring with 389 points.

Here is the full list of teams:

Rank	Team	Points
1	Det	406
2	Phi	389
3	KC	387
4	Buf	382
5	Bal	361
6	Mia	345
7	Jax	340
8	Cin	331
9	LAC	331
10	LV	313
11	Min	310
12	Sea	309
13	TB	309
14	Cle	306
15	NYJ	303
16	Ari	296
17	Atl	294
18	GB	293
19	Was	281
20	Dal	280
21	NO	279
22	Den	277
23	NYG	272
24	Ind	268
25	SF	268
26	Hou	261
27	NE	260
28	LAR	259
29	Ten	243
30	Pit	242
31	Car	238
32	Chi	223

 

BEST BENCH(ES)

As mentioned earlier, Week 3 was a low scoring week, so not surprisingly there were not a lot of points left on the bench.  The Wyld Ass Monkeys made a good attempt to claim the Best Bench, but came up just short of American BadAss.  To get a 25-point improvement, Jason needed three roster swaps:  T. Boyd for S. Diggs +9, D. Singletary for A. Kamara +9, and M. Gordon for J. Mixon +7.

 

In Week 4, there were a lot more points left on the bench, and sprouts made a good run at it (47 points),  but in the end that could not top the Best of the Best, my Scottish Rebels, with a 48-point-improvement possibility!!  A four player swap would get me there:  J. Jacobs for D. Cook +21, M. Sanders for A. Jones +16, J. Jeudy for M. Pittman Jr. +8, J. Dotson for A. Thielen +3.  This is my second Best Bench this season, having claimed my first one just two weeks ago.  This is also the highest Best Bench total this season, with me going even higher than my 42-point improvement in Week 2.  Aye yai yai…

 

Get your rosters ready for Week 5!  And can you believe it, next week will already be time for my Annual Playoff Predictions!  After picking perfect in 2020 (6 for 6) I dropped back a bit last year only getting 4 of 6 correct.  We’ll see if I can get it figured out this year…