Shootin' to the Top!

My apologies to Shawn, Timmy, Russ and Rob because you guys do not fit the mold of the top teams this season, as this is the year of the “J’s”!  Week 1, James.  Week 2, Joe.  Week 3, Jason.  Week 4, Jason again.  And now week 5, John!  Young Guns blasted to the top spot this week courtesy of terrific performances from Deshaun Watson and Saquon Barkley (24 points each), plus 17 each from Adam Thielen and T.J. Yeldon.  Since scoring only 69 points in Week 1, John has improved his point total each week (96, 100, 106) and now this week a league best 109 points.  Nice work sir!

In the process of winning this week, Young Guns defeated the only other team able to crack 100, Bye Week, who finished with 102.  That game marks the third time this season where the losing team scored over 100 points.  So far there have been 14 scores in excess of 100 this season, which means scoring >100 has won 78.5% of the time, well below the historical average of 88.3%. 

In player activity, Drew Brees set the NFL record for most passing yards in a career plus moved into the top fantasy scoring spot with 130 total points.  That is just 3 points ahead of boy wonder, Patrick Mahomes.  And here’s a crazy one…the top scoring wide receiver is Cooper Kupp having scored 31 points last week, and 15 points this week, giving him 77 total points.  And just two points behind him is Adam Thielen who has scored 75 points.  If you would have told me in the preseason that after Week 5 the top two receivers would be Cooper Kupp and Adam Thielen, I would have laughed in your face and asked you to leave my house.  I mean what kind of weird season is this?!

This week, we’re gonna jump right in with my annual Week 5 Playoff Predictions, check in with the All Unwanteds and see who snagged a 2nd Best Bench!  Here we go!

PLAYOFFS?!  DON’T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!
Two seasons ago, my playoff prediction picks went a perfect 6 for 6, but last year I only was right on 4 of 6.  I’m trying to see if I can recreate the magic of those 2016 predictions and get it right this time.  Here is a rundown of the factors used in consideration of playoff qualifiers.

First is overall record.  This season’s standings are very close with eight teams having either 3 or 2 wins.  Teams with a record of 3-2 have qualified for the playoffs 72% of the time, and those with a 2-3 record have qualified 56% of the time.  The 3-2 qualification rate is even better than 4-1, which has qualified 70% of the time.  The only other record in our league currently is 1-4 which has a 44% qualification rate.  So there are no real locks based on overall record at this point.  (Historically, the best starting record to have after 5 weeks is 3-1-1 which has a 100% qualification rate.  And it's not like we've only seen that record once or twice...it has happened 4 times with all 4 teams qualifying.)

The second factor is total points scored.  Across 11 seasons worth of data, the top two highest scoring teams as of Week 5 have qualified for the playoffs every, single, season.  So that is as close to a lock as you are going to find.  The next best playoff qualification rate comes, oddly, from the 5th ranked team which has qualified 75% of the time.    (In looking at determining the eventual champion, the Week 5 top scoring team has never won it all, but the 2nd, 5th and 9th ranked teams have won it twice and the 7th ranked team after Week 5 has won the title three times!) 

The final factor is schedule difficulty.  To determine schedule difficulty, I used the current points scored rankings of each team and added up the ranking of each opponent remaining on the schedule for every team.  This is only the second year of calculating schedule difficulty, but last year the top two teams with the easiest remaining schedule qualified for the playoffs.

Thus, taking all of this into consideration, here are my 2018 Playoff Predictions:

1. Joe’s Pats – Joe has the best overall record and leads the league in scoring.  Two very positive indicators for qualifying for the playoffs.
2. American BadAss – BadAss ranks second in overall scoring, which has never missed the playoffs.
3. Team IR & Holdout – TIR&HO is the 5th ranked team in scoring, which as mentioned before has qualified 75% of the time, plus they have the 4th easiest schedule remaining.
4. sprouts – Currently sporting a winning record and has the easiest schedule remaining.
5. Attack of Mahomes – Picked this one here as Timmy currently ranks 7th in overall scoring, so he has the highest likelihood of winning it all.
6. Young Guns – The Guns currently rank 3rd in scoring (only 1 point behind 2nd place), but may have a tough road as they have the 2nd hardest remaining schedule.

This means the teams left out this season will be:  Longshanks, Vandelay Industries, Coors Light Drunk Guys and Bye Week. 


ALL UNWANTEDS
The All Unwanteds is constructed using players who went undrafted (or were unkept), and are from the teams with the fewest players selected.  (This season the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jets each only had two players picked.)  Each week, I compare the All Unwanteds’ score to each team’s score and keep track of the overall win/loss record.  Last week was rough for the All Unwanteds as they went 1-9 after only scoring 61 points, so they enter this week with an overall record of 17-23. 
Here is this week’s lineup:
Pos Name                 Pts
QB Sam Darnold NYJ 17
RB Bilal Powell NYJ    7
RB Frank Gore Mia    6
WR Christian Kirk Ari 14
WR Jakeem Grant Mia 9
TE Mike Gesicki Mia  2
 K Jason Myers NYJ 11
DEF Arizona Ari 21
Total                                87
The total of 87 points is good for a record of 5-5 this week, so that improves their overall record to 17-23. 

BEST BENCH
It was the second lowest scoring week this season, so there really weren’t a lot of points left on the bench.  The winner this week is the first multi-Best Bench winner this season, and it was the same point improvement possibility as last time.  Thus, with another 28-point improvement possibility, the Week 5 Best Bench goes to… American BadAss!  Jason would have need a half-roster change (4 spots) to get there:  R. Woods for B. Cooks +14, Pittsburgh for Tennesee +9, C. Carson for E. Elliott +4, M. Stafford for M. Ryan +1.

Lets bring on Week 6!