IT'S MY BEER!!

It is playoff prediction time!  Five weeks is enough time to start separating the good from the bad, and this year we have quite the chasm.  Not since the 2011 season have we had two teams start off 0-5, and never has a team started out 0-5 and still made the playoffs.  On the other end of the spectrum, only once has an undefeated team after 5 weeks not made the playoffs.  So based on those two factoids, the fates of the Midnight Maulers, SofaKingHorrible and my Scottish Rebels are pretty well established.  Last year I correctly picked 5 of 6 playoff teams, so I’m going to see if I can be perfect this season!  Full playoff predictions below.

The bigtime congratulations this week go to Mr. Shawn Martin and his Coors Light Drunk Guys!  Shawn brought his “A” game (or should that be “F’n’A game”?) this week en route to his highest

score of the season, 117 points!  The Andrew Luck-to-TY Hilton combo was good for 47 points this week, and Devonta Freeman had a big game (17 points).  Solid performances from the rest of his team brought home the prize this week!  This is the Drunk’s first Weekly High Score Prize of the season.  Nice job Shawn!  F!  N!  A!

Only a quick update this week, so let’s get to it!

ALL UNWANTEDS

The All Unwanted Team entered this week with a record of 4-0, and were looking to stay unbeaten against American BadAss.  BadAss had a strong week, finishing with 100 points.  Here is the Unwanted’s roster:

Matt Ryan Atl - QB	14
Steve Smith Sr. Bal - WR	2
Mohamed Sanu Atl - WR	2
Terrance West Bal - RB	9
Tevin Coleman Atl - RB	22
Jacob Tamme Atl - TE	0
Matt Bryant Atl - K	12
Baltimore Bal - DEF	6
	67

In spite of some spirited play from Tevin Coleman, this goes down as the first loss of the season.  The All Unwanteds record is now 4-1.  Next week’s opponent is the Coors Light Drunk Guys.  Roster change notice: Mike Wallace and Jeremy Kerley will be replacing wide receivers.

PLAYOFFS?!  DON’T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!

As mentioned earlier, last year I was correct on 5 of 6 playoff entrants.  To get over the hump and correctly call all six playoff teams this season, I’ve enhanced my prognostication model to include a new statistic… difficulty of remaining schedule.  This will go along with statistics already being used: current overall record and total points scored.  Looking historically, here are some interesting notes:

-          - No team starting 0-5 has ever made the playoffs.

-          - One win teams through 5 weeks have qualified 50% of the time. 

-          - Undefeated teams through 5 weeks have only not qualified for the playoffs one time.

-          - The highest scoring team through 5 weeks has always qualified for the playoffs, but oddly has never won the championship.

-          - The second highest scoring team through 5 weeks also always has qualified for the playoffs.

Here are this year’s predictions for playoff qualifying teams:

-          Midnight Maulers – Highest scoring team and best record.

-          Coors Light Drunk Guys – Second highest scoring team.

-          American BadAss – Teams starting 4-1 qualify for playoffs 71% of the time.

-          NextYearXXXXX – Third highest scoring team, and teams starting 3-2 qualify 70% of the time.

-          Joe’s Pats – Only 1 loss and easiest schedule through the end of the season.

-          Vandelay Industries – 3-2 record qualifies 70% of the time and 3^rd easiest schedule through the remainder of the season.

That leaves the non-playoff teams as:

-          Sprouts – 8^th in overall scoring and the most difficult schedule through the end of the season.

-          Bubble Craps Bandits – 2-3 record only qualifies 50% of the time, and 7^th in overall scoring.

-          SofaKingHorrible – teams with an 0-5 record have never qualified for the playoffs.

-          Scottish Rebels – teams with an 0-5 record have never qualified for the playoffs.

WHERE IN THE WORLD IS JAMIE GEORGE?

It is pretty evident Jamie is not actively managing the Midnight Mauler’s roster, as it has not changed since the start of the year and he is carrying a player who is on I.R.  The last time I heard from Jamie was back several months ago when he renewed his team for this season.  He has not responded to my emails since and hasn’t paid his entry fee for this season.  His cell number has changed from the one I had for him, apparently, but I have also sent him Facebook messages to try to find out if he wants to play this season.  I’ve told him I need to know by this Thursday (10/13/16) so I can figure out what to do with his team.

Here is what I’m thinking… If I do not hear from him, we turn his team over to a replacement manager.  I’m thinking John can be the replacement, as he was in Vegas with Jens this year and hung out with us during the draft, so he has actually met five of us in the league.  I can’t imagine we could round up someone else at this point who has met more than five people in this league.  So he seems like a logical choice, and is also very into fantasy football.

What this would mean for everyone else in the league:  The Weekly High Score Prizes won by the Maulers so far this season would basically be voided, so everyone will get back $10.  John coming in would owe $100 for his entry fee which will make him eligible for Weekly High Score Prizes going forward (Weeks 6 – 16), plus any of the top finishing prizes. 

We’ve never had a completely absent owner like this before, so I’m really not entirely certain how we should proceed.  If you think there is a better course of action than what I’ve described, please let me know as soon as possible.

BEST BENCH

Really very few points left on the bench this week, as this week’s winner only had a 29-point improvement possibility, which is the lowest of the season.  Needing only two roster moves, the Week 5 Best Bench goes to… the Bubble Craps Bandits!!  Timmy only needed to swap out his runningbacks to improve the 29 points: T. Coleman for E. Lacy (+14), and T. Riddick for J. McKinnon (+15).