Van-de-lay, Van-de-lay!

The latex import/export business is booming!!  Vandelay Industries cruised to an easy victory this week, not only securing a spot in the playoffs but also becoming the 8^th different team to win a Weekly High Score Prize!  It is pretty incredible to think…no team has been the Weekly High Score more than twice this season, and only Bubble Crap Bandits and 14InchDitka (the Hand Boys!) have not been tops.  Vandelay Industries scored 112 points this week, led by a tandem of 27-point scorers, Antonio Brown and LeSean McCoy, and got a strong defensive performance from the Chiefs (18 points).  Well done Louis!!  Playoffs!

Only one single week remains until the start of the playoffs.  Here is what we now know for sure:

• American BadAss will be the top seed in the South Division.
• Joe’s Pats will be the top seed in the North Division.
• Young Guns is in for sure.
• Vandelay Industries is in for sure.
• Scottish Rebels are out.
• 14InchDitka is out.

Four teams are vying for the final two spots, here are possible scenarios:

• Coors Light Drunk Guys – Win final game.
• Boom-Next Year – Win final game PLUS loss from Bubble Crap Bandits.
• Bubble Craps Bandits – Win final game PLUS loss from Boom-Next Year.
• sprouts – Win final game PLUS losses from Bubble Craps Bandits AND Boom-Next Year.

If the Coors Light Drunk Guys lose this week, things could get interesting… a loss from the Drunks means Boom-Next Year and Bubble Craps Bandits could both get in with wins.  Also a Drunk Guys loss and a Boom loss mean sprouts could get in with a win by virtue of holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Drunk Guys.   But there is even a scenario where the Drunks Guys can lose and still get in.  If the Drunk Guys lose and Boom and sprouts both lose, the Drunk Guys will still make it in because of having tied twice this season.  (Ties, of course, count as a half loss, so that affects the overall win percentage ever so slightly). 

Now here’s the really crazy part… of the four teams still in the running for the final playoff spot there is not a head-to-head matchup between them, so it is conceivable all four of the teams could win.  If that happens, the Coors Light Drunk Guys would qualify as the 5th seed, and then there would be a tie for the final spot between Boom-Next Year and Bubble Craps Bandits.  For the first tiebreaker (head-to-head record) it is a tie because Boom and Bandits tied in Week 7 (78-78).  The next tiebreaker is points scored.  Boom holds a 74 point advantage currently (1,007 points scored to 933), which is a fairly sizable lead, but not insurmountable.  If the Bubble Craps Bandits win and by some off-chance outscore Boom-Next Year by 74 points, we will go to the final tie-breaker…the coin flip.  Never in the history of the league have we gone to the coin flip, and this is probably the closest to it we have ever been. 

As always, the Weekly High Score Prizes continue through Week 16 and all teams are eligible.  So make sure you have your roster set each week and are getting your waivers in.

Lastly, it is time for the Best Bench.  One team has d.o.m.i.n.a.t.e.d. Best Bench this season, and it is not even close.  Claiming a league-leading 5^th Best Bench, with a 38-point improvement possibility, the Week 12 Best Bench is… MY Scottish Rebels.  Needed to do a half roster swap this time:  D. Brees for D. Prescott (+12), M. Crabtree for B. Cooks (+11), J. Howard for T. Rawls (+9) and K. Rudolph for R. Gronkowski (+6).  If you sum up all the points from my five Best Benches this season, it comes to 148 points which I have left riding the pine.  The next closest team, which is miles behind me, is the Coors Light Drunk Guys, who have been Best Bench only twice and have left a combined 70 points on the bench.  I guess if you're going to do something, you might as well be the best at it...

Next week I will be back with a full length write-up, which will include a look back at how Yahoo! predicted teams would finish this season following the draft.

Don't make Joe angry!

The defending champ roars to life!  After posting just 78 points in Week 6, Joe’s Pats has been been on a hot streak scoring over 90 points in each of the last four weeks.  Point totals have been 94, 91, 96 and 98, for an average of 94.8 the second highest average in the league over that time span.  This week Joe’s Pats not only scored over 90 points again, they scored the 2nd highest single-week score of the season, which was also the 6th highest score of all-time!  Two of Joe’s players scored over 30 (Kirk Cousins +30, Rob Kelley +31), two scored over 20 (Dez Bryant +20, Pittsburgh +22), and the rest of his team average 10 points per player.  In the end, Joe’s Pats finished with 143 points(!!), crushing my Rebels by 73 points.  (This win avenges Week 4, 2014 when my Rebels defeated Joe’s Pats by 85 points, 133-48.)  Well done Joe!  That was certainly one for the record books…

Now on to the main attraction for this week:
PLAYOFFS?!  DON’T TALK ABOUT PLAYOFFS!  PLAYOFFS?!?
With all the tie games we have had this season, it has made for some interesting playoff scenarios which we will get to in just a sec.  First a quick refresher on the playoff rules:

• Top two teams in each division automatically qualify.  The top team in each division receives a first round bye.
• Next two highest ranked teams receive Wildcards.
• Wildcards are not division specific. Both can come from the same division.
• Teams not qualifying for the playoffs are still eligible to win the Weekly High Score prize, but do not compete in head-to-head games
• Final standing at end of regular season determines the order of teams finishing in 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th place.

Here are how divisional standings and wildcards are decided:

Divisional standing ranking:
Overall record
Division record
Head-to-head record
Points scored
Coin flip

Wildcard standing ranking/tiebreakers:
Overall record
Head-to-head record
Points scored
Coin flip

If the playoffs were to start this week, the entrants would be:
Divisional entrants:
      American BadAss, Young Guns, Joe’s Pats and USA GREAT AGAIN.

Wild Cards:
      Vandelay Industries and Coors Light Drunk Guys.

Here are the team-by-team statuses any playoff scenarios:
Teams already in
American BadAss – Already qualified for playoffs by winning 8 games.
Young Guns – Already qualified for playoffs by winning 7 games.
Joe’s Pats – Already qualified for playoffs by winning 6 games and tying 1 game.

Teams in control of own destiny
Vandelay Industries – Win one of two remaining games.
Coors Light Drunk Guys – Win one of two remaining games.
USA GREAT AGAIN – Win one of two remaining games.

Teams needing some help
Bubble Craps Bandits – Win both remaining games PLUS two losses from Vandelay Industries.
Scottish Rebels – Win both remaining games PLUS two losses from Vandelay Industries and it will come down to tie-breakers.
Sprouts - Win both remaining games PLUS two losses from Vandelay Industries and it will come down to tie-breakers.

The rest
14inch Ditka – Mathematically eliminated.

It is entirely possible there are more scenarios than what I've laid out above, so those may not be the only paths to the playoffs.  To have nine teams still vying for a spot with only two weeks left is pretty amazing.


Sorry about the short one this week (that’s what she said), but I’ve been having to actually do work when I am at work instead of sitting at my desk writing four-page emails.  So I've got to cut this one off early.  But I would be remiss if I did not award the Best Bench...

WEEK 11 BEST BENCH
Going into this week, four teams had yet to take home the title of Best Bench and now that number is down to three.  Taking home the title for the first time ever...with a solid 39-point improvement possibility, the Week 11 Best Bench goes to… Young Guns!!  John needed four roster moves to make it happen:  J. Crowder for AJ Green +16, M. Mariota for B. Roethlisberger +13, D. Moncrief for D. Adams +5 and T. Hightower for M. Ingram +5.


Remember even though the playoffs start in Week 14, all teams are still eligible to win the Weekly High Score Prize.  Get your rosters set!!

God bless the U.S.A!

Week 9 was the highest scoring week of the season thus far, with a total of 914 points scored!  Crazy to have an accomplishment like that in a week where six NFL teams were on byes.  The highest scoring week of all-time was Week 4, 2011 when 1,000 points were scored.  (Five teams scored over 100 points that week, and all but one team scored over 90 points.)

The congratulations this week go out to American BadAss, who topped everyone by scoring 121 points!  BadAss thrashed his head-to-head opponent, TrainWreck, by 54 points, and managed to hold off Young Guns who finished with 119 points.  BadAss’ runningbacks and quarterback were the key to victory, as Melvin Gordon had 34 points, Latavius Murray scored 30 and Aaron Rodgers added 25.  In all, 89 points from just three players, which by themselves would have defeated five other teams this week.  That’s some domination!  This is Jason’s first Weekly High Score Prize of the season, and it brings the total number of teams to win or tie for a high score to 7.  Well done senor!

Now, we have only four more regular season games to go, so the playoffs are right around the corner.  Here is a quick refresher on the playoff rules:

• Top two teams in each division automatically qualify.  The top team in each division receives a first round bye.
• Next two highest ranked teams receive Wildcards. (Wildcards are not division specific. Both can come from the same division.)
• Teams that do not qualify for the playoffs are still eligible to win the Weekly High Score prize, but do not compete in head-to-head games.
• Final standing at end of regular season determines standings for 7th, 8th, 9th and 10th place.  

Here are the tiebreakers for determining playoff qualifiers: (these may differ from what Yahoo! uses)
Divisional standing ranking
Overall record
Division record
Head-to-head record
Points scored
Coin flip

Wildcard standing ranking/tiebreakers
Overall record
Head-to-head record
Points scored
Coin flip

Next week I will start cranking through playoff scenarios for each team.


BEST BENCH
With six teams on byes this week, it was not surprising to see very few bench points sitting idle.  The lowest point total to ever claim the Best Bench title was 16, accomplished by the Midnight Maulers in Week 7, 2011.  This week’s winner wasn’t quite that low, but it did tie for the lowest one this season.  With a 28-point improvement possibility, claiming their 2nd Best Bench of the season, Week 9 goes to… the Coors Light Drunk Guys!  Shawn needed to only make two roster moves to make it happen:  C. Santos for C. Barth +15 and T. Taylor for A. Luck +13.  (Side note – Shawn, I would never recommend carrying a backup kicker, but if you do happen to have one, the one time it would come in handy is when your normal kicker is on a bye week!!!)


The push to the playoffs is on!  Let’s do this!!

Midterms are here!!

Eight weeks of football are in the books, which means it is time for midterm grades!  (Actually last week was time for midterms, but between traveling home from Boise and the Blazers season starting, I had no time to get it done.)  I’ve enhanced grading this year by applying weighting factors to the various criterion, and grades are once again on a curve.  The categories analyzed for grading are:

• Win % - Teams with higher win % awarded more points. (3x factor)
• Points Scored – Teams with more points scored awarded more points.  (2x factor)
• Weekly High Score Prizes – Teams with more high score prizes awarded more points. (2x factor)
• Points Against – Teams with more points scored against them awarded more points.  (This means they have played a tougher schedule).  (1x factor)
• Best Benches – Teams with no or fewer Best Benches awarded more points.  (1x factor)
• Keeper Production – Teams with higher production from keepers awarded more points.  (Teams who did not have two keepers will have their first round picks factored here.) (1x factor)

For each category, points received are multiplied by the associated weighting factor.  Points are awarded as follows:  the top team receives 10 points, 2^nd highest receives 9 points and so on down to 1 point for the bottom team.  Full scoring and grades below.

Before we get into that, I’ve got double duty on handing out congratulations.  Last week, Young Guns came out shooting and posted 108 points to take top honors!  They did it with great performances from the wide receiver position (AJ Green 25 pts, Julio Jones 20 pts), plus had Marcus Mariota and CJ Anderson each tack on 16 points.  This was John’s first Weekly High Score Prize, although technically this is the third high score from this group this season.  The win also extended the Young Guns undefeated start to the season.  Well done John!

This week’s congrats go to sprouts!  Team sprouts had six players score in double digits, led by Matt Ryan with 23 and the Denver Defense with 22.  This was Russ’ second Weekly High Score Prize of the season (the most of any team so far), and with the win he leveled his record at 4-4.  Great work Russ!

Now…onward!

BIG TIME

• Derek Carr, QB – American BadAss – 38 pts – The Raiders set a couple records on Sunday.  The first was Carr setting a Raiders’ team record with 513 yards passing (to go along with 4 TD’s).  The second was an NFL record 24 penalties assessed against the Raiders during the game.  That means the Raiders were called for a penalty every 2 ½ minutes.
• Aaron Rodgers, QB – American BadAss – 33 pts – Jason cornered the market on Week 8 QB’s!  Rodgers looked like Rodgers this week, tossing 4 TD’s, 246 passing yard, 60 rushing yards and getting a 2-pt conversion.
• Blake Bortles, QB – sprouts – 29 pts – In spite of posting a good point total, Bortles received no love this week from Yahoo.  Here is a direct quote: “Bortles was utterly horrendous, and frankly, lucky not to get benched.  His motion has become a cross between side-armed Matthew Stafford and Tim Tebow.  At times it looked like he was trying to toss a fully-baked turkey.  All of Bortles ‘production’ came in garbage time.”  Dang, but tell me how you really feel about him.
• Tom Brady, QB – Bubble Craps Bandits – 29 pts – In the four games since Brady has been back, he is averaging 27 ppg which is the highest of any player across that time span.
• Jordan Howard, RB – Scottish Rebels – 28 pts – Howard was huge on Monday night, piling up 202 total yards and a TD against a tough Minnesota defense.
• Kirk Cousins, QB – Joe’s Pats – 27 pts – This was Cousin’s best game of the year, finishing with 458 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 INT.  Cousins is now the 8^th ranked QB in fantasy.

 

COME ON MAN

• Buffalo, DEF – Bubble Craps Bandits – 2 pts – Giving up 41 points to the Patriots is not going to get the job done.
• TY Hilton, WR – Coors Light Drunk Guys – 2 pts – Tyrone’s Youngin’ only managed to catch 1 of 6 passes thrown his way. 
• Julio Jones, WR – Young Guns – 2 pts – Julio has bounced back from bad performances well this season… 39 points (in Week 4 after scoring only 1 point in Week 3), and 19 pts (in Week 6 after scoring 2 points in Week 5).  We’ll see if he can do that again this week.
• Greg Olsen, TE – Young Guns – 1 pt – Off the bye week, Olsen has his worst game catching only one pass for 11 yards.
• Tyrell Williams, WR – Vandelay Industries – 0 pts – One stinking catch for 4 stinking yards.
• LeSean McCoy, RB – Vandelay Industries – 0 pts – Shady was officially inactive prior to the game, yet remained in Vandelay’s active lineup.
• Mark Ingram, RB – Young Guns – -2 pts – Here’s the opposite of a good stat line… 3 carries for -9 yards and a lost fumble.  Yuck.

 

MIDTERMS!

Once again this season, instead of giving out boring ol’ letter grades, I’m giving each team a much more exciting (and nebulous) stock grade.  If you’re unsure what your stock grade means, you are on par with about 99% of the country.  Now, as mentioned earlier, there are six categories in which teams were graded on.  Before getting to each team’s score and grade, I would like to highlight the top scoring team in each category:

Win % - Young Guns.  With a 5-1-2 record, Young Guns have the highest win percentage at 75.0%.

Points Scored – Scottish Rebels.  In spite of being 9^th in the standings, my Rebels have been putting up the points this season having scored 740 so far.

Weekly High Scores – sprouts.  Russ has taken 2 of 8 Weekly High Score Prizes thus far.

Best Benches – Joe’s Pats, Young Guns, SofaKingHorrible and ThatsAllIGotJerry all have not had a Best Bench this season.

Keeper Production – American BadAss.  Keepers Aaron Rodgers and David Johnson are averaging nearly 40 points combined per week.

Young Guns	Points
Win %	30
Points Scored	16
Points Against	1
Weekly High Score	14
Best Bench	7
Keeper Production	8
Total	76

Notes - Young Guns get a big boost by having the best overall record in the league, and being 2^nd in total scoring.

Grade = Strong Buy

ThatsAllIGotJerry	Points
Win %	21
Points Scored	12
Points Against	10
Weekly High Score	10
Best Bench	7
Keeper Production	3
Total	63

Notes - Jens has the third best win percentage in the league, and has the most points scored against him.

Grade = Buy

Coors Light Drunk Guys	Points
Win %	12
Points Scored	18
Points Against	5
Weekly High Score	14
Best Bench	2
Keeper Production	9
Total	60

Notes - The Drunks have scored the second most points this season, and have the 2^nd most production from keepers (when including first round pick Andrew Luck as a keeper along with Devonta Freeman).

Grade = Moderate Buy

Joe's Pats	Points
Win %	21
Points Scored	10
Points Against	6
Weekly High Score	14
Best Bench	7
Keeper Production	2
Total	60

Notes - Joe has the third best win percentage, but also the second worst keeper production (Jordan Reed and Jeremy Langford).

Grade = Moderate Buy

American BadAss	Points
Win %	27
Points Scored	14
Points Against	2
Weekly High Score	2
Best Bench	2
Keeper Production	10
Total	57

Notes - BadAss has the second best win percentage (62.5%) and has the best keeper production.

Grade = Hold

sprouts	Points
Win %	12
Points Scored	8
Points Against	4
Weekly High Score	20
Best Bench	2
Keeper Production	7
Total	53

Notes - Sprouts gets a boost for having snagged two weekly high scores, but ranks 7^th in overall scoring.

Grade = Hold

Scottish Rebels	Points
Win %	6
Points Scored	20
Points Against	8
Weekly High Score	10
Best Bench	1
Keeper Production	6
Total	51

Notes - My Rebels have scored the most points in the league, but have the 2^nd worst win percentage (37.5%).

Grade = Hold

Vandelay Industries	Points
Win %	12
Points Scored	4
Points Against	7
Weekly High Score	2
Best Bench	2
Keeper Production	5
Total	32

Notes - Vandelay ranks 9^th in total scoring and is tied for 5^th in win percentage (50.0%).

Grade = Weak Hold

Bubble Craps Bandits	Points
Win %	9
Points Scored	6
Points Against	3
Weekly High Score	2
Best Bench	2
Keeper Production	4
Total	26

Notes - The Bandits rank 8^th in win percentage, 8^th in points scored and 8^th in points against. 

Grade = Sell

SofaKingHorrible	Points
Win %	3
Points Scored	2
Points Against	9
Weekly High Score	2
Best Bench	7
Keeper Production	1
Total	24

Notes - The King ranks last in win percentage (18.75%), last in points scored and last in keeper production (Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles).

Grade = Strong Sell

BEST BENCH(ES)

Week 7’s Best Bench was the lowest point improvement possibility of the season at only 28 points.  The winner was…sprouts!  Russ needed only two roster moves to make it happen: J. Hill for T. Gurley (+19) and M. Jones for A. Robinson (+9).

This week’s Best Bench was won by a team who is dominating this section this season.  No, not the Coors Light Drunk Guys (I’m as shocked as you are)…claiming a third Best Bench this year is, my Scottish Rebels!  This time I had a 36-point improvement possibility with 5, yes 5!!, roster moves:  J. Howard for R. Mathews (+21), D. Prescott for D. Brees (+6), A. Hurns for B. Cooks (+5), M. Crabtree for M. Evans (+3) and L. Miller for C. Michael (+1).

 There are only five weeks of the regular season left, then it will be time for playoffs!  Let’s do this!!